This whole "Russian thing": A timeline
So I was trying to understand this whole "Russian thing". So I did a little research. If you, too, have been trying to understand this whole russian thing, here's a timeline. It's kind of a long timeline, and I should point out that this isn't anywhere close to everything; I left out a *ton* of smaller details, and I'm sure there's a lot more I missed altogether.
2016:Apr 27 -- Trump and Sessions meet Russian ambassador Kislyak (briefly) during a VIP reception at Mayflower Hotel.
"Summer" -- Comey attempted to go public as early as the summer of 2016 with information on Russia’s campaign to influence the U.S. presidential election, by writing an op-ed. Obama officials don't like the idea: "thought the announcement should be a coordinated message backed by multiple agencies, the source says. “An op-ed doesn’t have the same stature. It comes from one person.”"
Aug -- "A handwritten ledger surfaced in Ukraine with dollar amounts and dates next to the name of Paul Manafort, Donald Trump’s campaign chairman." (source: AP) Ukrainian investigators called it evidence of off-the-books payments from a pro-Russian political party. Manafort denies ledger's authenticity.
Aug 19 -- Manafort leaves Trump campaign. The same day, he creates a shell company which receives $13 million in loans from two businesses with ties to Trump. Weeks later Manafort also takes out a $3.5 million mortgage, and fails to file paperwork or pay the taxes due on it.
Aug-Nov -- Flynn simultaneously working for Trump campaign and as lobbyist on behalf of Turkish government (paid $530,000). Flynn fails to register as a foreign agent for these lobbying efforts.
Sep 19 -- Flynn meets with Turkish government ministers, including Erdogan's son-in-law, to discuss "sneaking Fethullah Gulen, whom Turkey blames for a failed coup last summer, out of the U.S. without going through the legal extradition process" i.e. kidnapping a US citizen
Oct 7 -- DHS and DNI publicly accuse Russian government of tampering with US election
Nov 18 -- Trump names Flynn as his national security adviser
Dec -- Jared Kushner met with Kislyak at Trump Tower; later meets with Gorkov (Russian banker closely tied to Putin).
Nov - Dec -- Flynn has a series of contacts with Kislyak "by text message, by phone and in person". US Intelligence officials -- who routinely monitor the communications of Russian diplomats -- say Flynn "urged Russia not to overreact to the penalties being imposed by President Barack Obama, making clear that the two sides would be in position to review the matter after Trump was sworn in as president."
2017:
Jan 7 -- Intelligence Community Assessment from CIA, NSA, and FBI is declassified, describing "an unprecedented public information campaign" by Russian government officials "involving state-funded media, third parties and paid social media users to help discredit Hillary Clinton and promote Donald Trump"
Jan 10 -- British intelligence dossier of questionable authenticity alleges Russia has compromising information on Trump: "specific, unverified, and potentially unverifiable allegations of contact between Trump aides and Russian operatives, and graphic claims of sexual acts documented by the Russians" (If you've heard jokes about the "pee tape": this is the pee tape). Trump derides the report as "FAKE NEWS - A TOTAL POLITICAL WITCH HUNT".
Jan 11 -- The UAE arranges a secret two-day meeting in the Seychelles between Blackwater founder Erik Prince (incidentally, Betsy DeVos's brother) and an unidentified Russian close to Putin "as part of an apparent effort to establish a back-channel line of communication between Moscow and President-elect Donald Trump". Prince "presented himself as an unofficial envoy for Trump to high-ranking Emiratis involved in setting up his meeting". Trump campaign denies any involvement.
Jan 18 -- Kushner omits "dozens of contacts with foreign officials", including those with Kislyak and Gorkov, when submitting his security clearance application. (The form warns that knowingly falsifying or concealing material facts is a federal felony that may result in fines or up to five years imprisonment.)
Jan 24 -- Flynn interviewed by FBI
Jan 25 -- Sally Yates briefed by FBI about Flynn interview
Jan 26 -- Yates meets with McGahn (Trump legal advisor) to discuss Flynn / FBI interview; warns White House that Flynn could be blackmailed by Russians
Jan 27 -- Yates meets with McGahn again to discuss his topics of concern
Jan 27 -- Trump has dinner with Comey, asks "whether Mr. Comey would pledge his loyalty to him", inquires about Trump/Russia investigation
Jan 30 -- Yates fired
Feb 8 -- Sessions, unprompted, falsely claims in confirmation hearing "I never had meetings with Russian operatives or Russian intermediaries about the Trump campaign".
Feb 9 -- Flynn, in interview with Washington Post, denies ever discussion sanctions with Kislyak.
Feb 10 -- Flynn (through spokesman) changes his story, now "couldn’t be certain that the topic never came up"
Feb 10 -- Asked about reports Flynn discussed sanctions with Kislyak, Trump replies, "I don't know about that."
Feb 13 -- Flynn resigns
Feb 14 -- Trump asks Comey to shut down the FBI investigation into Flynn. "I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go"
Mar 2 -- Sessions, under pressure for his false testimony, recuses himself from Russia investigation
Mar 4 -- Trump tweetclaims Obama "wiretapped" Trump Tower.
Mar 4 -- Former Obama deputy national security adviser, to Trump: "No President can order a wiretap. Those restrictions were put in place to protect citizens from people like you"
Mar 6 -- Comey asks the Justice Department to issue a statement refuting Trump's "wiretap" claim, which is already widely being reported as "baseless". White house spokesman says Trump continues to believe he was wiretapped.
Mar 7 -- Trump spokeswoman claims Trump had "zero" involvement with Russian officials during campaign.
Mar 8 -- Reporters dig up evidence of Trump's Apr 27 meeting with Kislyak.
Mar 10 -- Flynn files papers "acknowledging that he worked as a foreign agent last year representing the interests of the Turkish government in a dispute with the United States".
Mar 11 -- White House official says a Breitbart story, slipped into Trump's reading pile by a staffer, was source of Trump’s wiretaps claim
Mar 15 -- Spicer is “very confident” that wiretapping evidence will emerge.
Mar 16 -- Trump says he will submit evidence of wiretapping to House committee "very soon"
Mar 20 -- Comey testifies to Congress that the FBI has been investigating possible links between Trump associates and Russian officials since July. This is the first public acknowledgment of the investigation. Also says, re "wiretap" claim, "I have no information that supports those tweets". Trump describes Comey hearings as "FAKE NEWS".
Mar 21 -- Nunes, House Intelligence Committee chair, "secretly travels to the White House to meet an unnamed source" who shows him evidence that Trump's name was incidentally collected by FBI in course of Russia investigation.
Mar 22 morning -- Nunes briefs speaker Ryan. Nunes does not brief the rest of the House Intelligence Committee.
Mar 22 afternoon -- Nunes holds press conference claiming incidental collection corroborates Trump's "wiretap" claim.
Mar 23 -- Republican Congressional Campaign Committee fundraising letter: "Confirmed: Obama Spied on Trump". Trump defends his wiretap claims to TIME Magazine: "I'm president, and you're not."
Mar 23 -- Spicer denies that Nunes received his information from the White House.
Mar 24 -- Nunes cancels open hearing featuring Yates, claims cancellation has "nothing to do with the new documents" and that the committee needs more time to interview Comey in closed session.
Mar 24 -- Nunes "backs down" from assertion that Trump was monitored, says the surveillance was legal and there was no wiretap of Trump Tower: "That didn't happen."
Mar 25 -- Evidence of Flynn's plan to kidnap Gulen and ferry him to Turkey reaches the public.
Mar 27 -- Nunes spokesman confirms Nunes did, in fact, receive his information from the White House. Calls for Nunes to step down from committee are rebuffed by Ryan, who calls Nunes a "whistleblower type".
Mar 28 -- Trump tweetclaims Russia investigation "a hoax".
Mar 30 -- NYT confirms names of Nunes' sources (White House officials Ezra Cohen-Watnick and Michael Ellis.) Schiff speculates that the White House was attempting to “launder” info through the House committee.
Mar 30 -- Flynn offers to testify to FBI, house, and/or senate in exchange for immunity. Officials said the idea of immunity was a “non-starter", “wildly preliminary” and that immunity was “not on the table.”
Mar 31 -- Trump tweetclaims that Flynn should ask for immunity because investigation is a "witch hunt" (in apparent ignorance of the previous day's events.)
Apr 1 -- Trump tweetclaims Russian story "phony", abruptly skips out on signing two executive orders and leaves room when asked by a reporter about Flynn. (Pence retrieves the orders from Trump's desk, and they are signed in private.)
Apr 5 -- Trump accuses Susan Rice of improperly using surveillance information. (Nunes's "unmasking" claims stemmed from intelligence queries initiated by Rice.) Rice said she “absolutely” never sought to uncover “for political purposes” the names of Trump officials concealed in intelligence intercepts.
Apr 6 -- Kushner admits to falsifying his security clearance application. Kushner's lawyer calls this an "error", promises to update info when Kushner is formally interviewed by FBI. (I've found no indication whether this interview ever happened; Kushner currently holds a "temporary" security clearance.)
Apr 6 -- Nunes, now "under investigation for “unauthorized disclosures of classified information”" steps down "temporarily" from leading the Senate investigation committee. Nunes blames "left-wing activist groups” that filed accusations against him, which he called “entirely false and politically motivated.”
Apr 12 -- Financial records confirm the August 2016 Manafort "black ledger": Manafort received at least $1.2 million from a Ukrainian pro-Russian political party. Manafort no longer denies the authenticity of the ledger, now calls the payments "legitimate payments for political consulting work."
Apr 12 -- Trump tweetclaims "it's not too late" to fire Comey. "But, you know, I have confidence in him. We'll see what happens. You know, it's going to be interesting."
Apr 13 -- Democrats call for Kushner's security clearance to be revoked. Nothing happens.
Apr 23 -- Senate Intelligence Committee's russia investigation "does not have a single staffer dedicated to it full-time, and the seven staff members working on it part-time do not have significant investigative experience." "More than three months after the committee announced that it had agreed on the scope of the investigation, the panel has not begun substantially investigating possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia;" instead has been focused only on reviewing the January Intelligence Community Assessment.
Apr 25 -- House Oversight Committee says Flynn broke law by failing to disclose $25000 payment from Russian propaganda network on his security clearance application. Separately, Flynn's Turkish lobbying efforts are connected to Russia: Flynn received $600,000 working "with an executive in Russian oil companies on Turkish lobbying projects" who is indirectly connected to Putin.
Apr 26 -- Senate confirms Rosenstein as deputy AG and head of Russia investigation
Apr 28 -- Senate Intelligence Committee asks Flynn for documents related to his communications with Kislyak.
Apr 28 -- Sessions recuses himself from any investigation of Flynn (extending his existing recusal from the overall russia investigation)
May 3 -- Comey testifies to Congress: "mildly nauseous" that he affected the election.
May ? -- "days before he was fired," per NYT, Comey asks Rosenstein for additional resources for Trump/Russia investigation. DoJ denies the story.
May 8 -- Yates testifies to Senate investigators
May 9 -- Date of Rosenstein's memo describing Comey's missteps in investigation of Hillary's emails, and (now-apparently-unrecused) Sessions' recommendation that Comey be fired.
May 9 -- Trump fires Comey. Spicer: “It was all him [Rosenstein]. No one from the White House. That was a DOJ decision.”
May 10 -- Trump meets with Kislyak and Lavrov with Russian media present, US media barred. Trump leaks intel, apparently solely to brag that "I get great intel. I have people brief me on great intel every day".
May 10 -- Senate Intelligence Committee invites Comey to testify in closed session; subpoenas Flynn for the documents first requested on April 28.
May 11 -- Rosenstein "so upset w/ the White House for pinning the Comey firing on him yesterday that he was on the verge of resigning"
May 11 -- Trump says he had been intending to fire Comey for months, would have fired Comey “regardless” of the Justice department advice. Trump also contradicts previous WH claims that Comey firing related to Hillary's email; admits "this Russian thing" reason for firing
May 11 -- Trump, Sessions and Rosenstein ask Comey for a "preview" of his Senate testimony. He refuses.
May 12 -- Trump: "James Comey better hope that there are no ‘tapes’ of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!"
May 12 -- Comey declines to testify before Senate committee in closed session.
May 13 -- Comey says he is willing to testify before Senate committee in a public hearing. Rosenstein briefs full Senate in closed, classified session.
May 15 -- National Security Adviser McMaster issues carefully worded denial Trump leaked information to Russians: "At no time were any intelligence sources or methods discussed, and no military operations were disclosed that were not already known publicly"
May 16 -- Comey responds to Trump "tape" threat by revealing he's been keeping detailed notes on meetings with Trump, which is why we know about loyalty pledge dinner and Trump's request to "shut down" the investigation.
May 16 -- Trump contradicts McMaster: "As President I wanted to share with Russia (at an openly scheduled W.H. meeting) which I have the absolute right to do, facts pertaining to terrorism and airline flight safety".
May 16 -- Intel leaked by Trump confirmed to have originated in Israeli undercover operation (regarding an ISIS plot to smuggle laptops loaded with explosives onto airplanes). Israeli intelligence describes leak as "our worst fears confirmed".
May 16 -- Federal investigators subpoena Manafort for financial records
May 17 -- Putin offers "to provide a transcript of the Lavrov-Trump meeting to the U.S. Senate and Congress. It will happen if the U.S. administration wishes so"
May 17 -- Both the Senate Intelligence Committee and the House Oversight Committee invite Comey to testify in public session. The House hearing is set for next Wednesday. Chaffetz asks FBI to turn over all documents it has on Trump / Comey conversations "I have my subpoena pen ready." Those documents are set to be turned over on Tuesday.
TL;DR: Flynn is dirty as hell, he'll be in jail within months, if not weeks.
Manafort is dirty as hell.
Carter Page really wanted to be dirty, but nobody ever took him seriously enough for him to commit to anything criminal (I ended up removing him from the timeline because all his involvement was so inconsequential.)
Everybody involved has a surprisingly difficult time filling out their security clearance applications.
Trump himself is obviously guilty of obstruction of justice re Comey, which will matter if and when the Democrats take control of, well, anything. There isn't much information currently available to the public that directly ties him to Russia, money laundering, or etc (but then, there wouldn't be while the FBI investigation continues.) Obviously he's taken a lot of money from Russian investors, but he's a real estate guy, which makes all of that explainable.
Trump is also obviously too ignorant to even realize how far in over his head he is -- about 90% of the public damage to his administration described here is self-inflicted, mostly by tweet.
One of the most difficult things in compiling this was that they couldn't restrain themselves to one international scandal at a time -- I left out most of the stuff with Israel and Syria. Turkey made the cut mostly because of the Flynn connection (and because the "Let's kidnap Gulen!" plan was so outrageous.)
And I really wish I'd been keeping citation URLs as I went. This started out as just a quick "hang on let me see if I can sort this out" and quickly ballooned in to a full afternoon's research project. Everything in quotes is a quote; I bet if you google it you'll find whatever citation you want.
And it's already out of date; now we have a special counsel appointed and a terrifying recording from 2016 that I haven't quite digested but which I'm pretty darn sure shows Paul Ryan is up to his neck in this thing too. Could the government please just slow its roll for a while? Just so I can, like, have a full meal between meltdowns?
seriously just read the transcript, this is so damning. “No leaks.... This is how we know we’re a real family here.”